Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers

نویسندگان

چکیده

This paper applies a new artificial intelligence architecture, the temporal fusion transformer (TFT), for joint GDP forecasting of 25 OECD countries at different time horizons. attention-based architecture offers significant advantages over other deep learning methods. First, results are interpretable since impact each explanatory variable on forecast can be calculated. Second, it allows visualizing persistent patterns and identifying events regimes. Third, provides quantile regressions permits training model multiple series from distributions. Results suggest that TFTs outperform regression models, especially in periods turbulence such as COVID-19 shock. Interesting economic interpretations obtained depending whether country has domestic demand-led or export-led growth. In essence, TFT is revealed tool to economists policy makers, with enormous prospects future.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Multi-horizon Irradiation Forecasting Using Time Series Models

As fossil fuels combustion poses a real public health problem, PV and wind energy sources seem good alternatives. The main advantage is the renewable and inexhaustible aspects and the main disadvantages are related to their intermittencies. This paper deals with a solution to solve this problem: the forecasting of the renewable energy sources and more precisely the forecasting of solar irradiat...

متن کامل

Flood Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks: an Application of Multi-Model Data Fusion technique

Floods are among the natural disasters that cause human hardship and economic loss. Establishing a viable flood forecasting and warning system for communities at risk can mitigate these adverse effects. However, establishing an accurate flood forecasting system is still challenging due to the lack of knowledge about the effective variables in forecasting. The present study has indicated that th...

متن کامل

Multi-period and multi-resource operating room scheduling and rescheduling using a rolling horizon approach: a case study

In this paper, a multi-period and multi-resource operating room (OR) scheduling and rescheduling problem with elective and semi-elective (semi-urgent) patients is addressed. A scheduling-rescheduling framework based on the so-called rolling horizon approach is proposed to solve the problem. The core of the proposed framework is a novel proposed mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model with...

متن کامل

Multi-horizon solar radiation forecasting for Mediterranean locations using time series models

Considering the grid manager's point of view,needsin terms ofprediction of intermittent energy like thephotovoltaic resourcecan be distinguishedaccording to theconsideredhorizon: following days (d+1, d+2 and d+3), next day by hourly step (h+24), next hour (h+1) and next few minutes (m+5 e.g.). Through this work, we haveidentified methodologies using time series modelsfor thepredictionhorizonof ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Mathematics

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2227-7390']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/math11122625